Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia Increases East-West Pipeline Flows to Over 80% Capacity; Recovery Faster Than Kepler's Expectations

Saudi Arabia has increased oil flows through the East-West pipeline to more than 80% of its capacity, with crude available for export from the western coast reaching its highest levels since the outbreak of the war in late February, according to Bloomberg.

The agency quoted a knowledgeable source stating that Saudi Aramco is pumping nearly 6 million barrels per day through the pipeline, which has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels. After accounting for the supply to western coast refineries, about 4.5 million barrels per day remain available for export.

Faster Recovery Than Expected

The current level exceeds what the pipeline was handling before it was targeted, as Kepler, a shipment tracking company, estimated the pre-attack flow rate at about 5.5 million barrels per day.

The company had estimated post-restart flows at about 2.65 million barrels per day and expected in a memo dated September 28 that returning to the previous rate would take another month. However, the pipeline reached and surpassed this level within days.

From Targeting to Resumption

An official source in the Ministry of Energy announced via the Saudi Press Agency that parts of the pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions were targeted on the morning of Thursday, September 10, leading to injuries among workers and a precautionary halt in pumping.

The pipeline resumed operations at reduced rates on September 22, as reported by Reuters citing three informed sources. Aramco later informed its customers of the October loading schedule from the Yanbu port, according to a source at an Asian refinery who spoke to the agency.

Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser told Japan's Nikkei newspaper on September 24 that temporary disruptions at oil facilities "usually last days, not weeks or months."

Exports at Highest Level Since War Began

Kepler data, reported by CNBC, showed that the kingdom's crude exports reached 6 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began, and nearly 80% higher than in August.

The network explained that the kingdom diverted part of its exports through the Strait of Hormuz during the pipeline halt. The average oil exports through the strait were 13.2 million barrels per day over seven days, compared to about 17 million before the war.

A Lifeline Beyond Hormuz

The pipeline, known as Petroline, stretches approximately 1,200 kilometers from Abqaiq eastward to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Since the outbreak of the war, it has become the main outlet for Saudi crude exports away from the Strait of Hormuz.

The average loadings from Yanbu exceeded 4 million barrels per day since June, compared to 973,000 barrels during the same period in 2025, according to Signal Ocean data reported by Reuters in July. The agency reported at the time, citing sources, that the kingdom is considering expanding the pipeline's capacity.

The Crown Prince affirmed in the royal speech before the Shura Council that the kingdom has been a "global energy security valve," with its ability to supply international markets despite the escalation.